Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Predictions - April 2008

First predix update of the year, but there's not much change. So for your convenience I'll point out my few alterations:
  • In Picture and Director, replaced WALL-E with Frost/Nixon.
  • In Supporting Actress, replaced Kathy Bates with Viola Davis.
  • In Original Screenplay, replaced Changeling with Vicky Christina Barcelona.
  • In Art Direction, replaced Prince Caspian with Revolutionary Road.
  • In Costume Design, replaced Prince Caspian and Changeling with Revolutionary Road and Doubt.

Other than that, everything's the same. Maybe the upcoming months will help clarify the VFX and sound categories a little bit.

Picture
Body of Lies
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Milk
Frost/Nixon

Director
Ridley Scott Body of Lies
David Fincher The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant Milk
Ron Howard Frost/Nixon

Leading Actor
Benicio Del Toro The Argentine
Frank Langella Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio Body of Lies
Brad Pitt The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Leading Actress
Meryl Streep Doubt
Julianne Moore Blindness
Kate Winslet Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie Changeling
Anne Hathaway Dancing With Shiva

Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin Milk
Michael Sheen Frost/Nixon
Heath Ledger The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman Doubt
John Malkovich Burn After Reading

Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet The Reader
Viola Davis Doubt
Amy Adams Doubt
Cate Blanchett The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Michelle Williams Synecdoche, New York

Original Screenplay
Synecdoche, New York
Milk
WALL-E
Burn After Reading
Vicky Christina Barcelona

Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Body of Lies
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Doubt

Film Editing
Body of Lies
Defiance
Appaloosa
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography
Australia
Defiance
The Dark Knight
Red Cliff
Blindness

Original Score
WALL-E
Indiana Jones
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
Prince Caspian

Art Direction
Red Cliff
Australia
Indiana Jones
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin

Costume Design
The Other Boleyn Girl
Red Cliff
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Doubt

Original Song
Mamma Mia
Sex and the City
The Soloist
Australia
Kung Fu Panda

Sound Mixing
Defiance
WALL-E
Appaloosa
Prince Caspian
Iron Man

Sound Editing
WALL-E
Iron Man
Defiance
Indiana Jones
Speed Racer

Visual Effects
Prince Caspian
Iron Man
Harry Potter

Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Prince Caspian

Animated Picture
WALL-E
Kung Fu Panda
The Tale of Despereaux

2 comments:

Marcy said...

I'm glad you replaced WALL-E with Frost/Nixon. I am still unconvinced by all the WALL-E hype. I don't think it's going to break box office records or get a million Oscar nominations. But this movie may just surprise me when it turns out that everyone else has been right.

I think Doubt has a good chance to grab a nomination in the Best Picture category, but not a win. It has an extraordinary cast and if reviews fare well, it certainly will get a nomination.

I firmly believe that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button seems like the most likely Best Picture winner at this time. From early script reviews, the movie is heartwarming and lovely--the kind of movie that the Academy loves and haven't quite rewarded in recent years. But then again, I thought Charlie Wilson's War was a sure winner last year...

After watching the Blindness trailer, I'm having doubts about Moore's nomination. The movie just doesn't seem...good? It seems a little silly and isn't the type of movie where performances are widely recognized. But Moore is an excellent actress, so that changes everything.

Anne Hathaway as an Oscar nominee...nope, I still can't grasp it. Dancing with Shiva sounds like last year's Margot with the Wedding and if Nicole Kidman and Jennifer Jason Leigh couldn't get a nomination, there is very little hope for Hathaway...unless critics actually LIKE Dancing with Shiva.

No Catherine Keener? No Australia in major categories? No Clint Eastwood? Interesting...

By the way, it's Vicky CRISTINA Barcelona.

The Oscar Nazi said...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Marcy.

I know WALL-E was wishful thinking, but I've had my fun. You'll hear no regrets from me for such an outlandish prediction.

As for Doubt, I just can't shake the feeling that it'll be this year's Notes on a Scandal. But of the films I don’t currently have on my best picture list, it certainly has the best shot.

The massive hype for Blindness may kill its chances, but Moore’s got a safety net with Savage Grace, so I imagine she’ll be nominated for something.

Now I know that Hathaway seems an unlikely nominee, but sometimes I just have to take a leap of faith, and Dancing with Shiva is my token improbability of the year.

The love for Keener and Australia will come in time. I just don’t want to jinx them by predicting them too early.

(P.S: thanks for the spell-check. I am terrible when it comes to that!)