Monday, March 24, 2008

Predictions - March 2008

For those who follow, you know my full initial predictions have been on the sidebar since Thursday, but this post is just for the record. I'll be updating on a monthly basis, not that there will be much change for the first several months. Anyway, here are my neat and tidy official predictions, followed by some general thoughts and footnotes:

(In order of nomination likelihood, predicted winner asterisked*)

Picture
1. Revolutionary Road
2. Milk
3. Body of Lies*
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. WALL-E

Director
1. Sam Mendes Revolutionary Road
2. Ridley Scott Body of Lies*
3. Gus Van Sant Milk
4. David Fincher The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Andrew Stanton WALL-E

Leading Actor
1. Frank Langella Frost/Nixon
2. Benicio Del Toro The Argentine*
3. Sean Penn Milk
4. Leonardo DiCaprio Body of Lies
5. Brad Pitt The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Leading Actress
1. Meryl Streep Doubt*
2. Kate Winslet Revolutionary Road
3. Julianne Moore Blindness
4. Angelina Jolie Changeling
5. Anne Hathaway Dancing With Shiva

Supporting Actor
1. Michael Sheen Frost/Nixon
2. Josh Brolin Milk*
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman Doubt
4. John Malkovich Burn After Reading
5. Heath Ledger The Dark Knight

Supporting Actress
1. Amy Adams Doubt
2. Cate Blanchett The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Michelle Williams Synecdoche, New York
4. Kathy Bates Revolutionary Road
5. Kate Winslet The Reader*

Original Screenplay
1. Synecdoche, New York*
2. Milk
3. WALL-E
4. Burn After Reading
5. Changeling

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
2. Body of Lies
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Revolutionary Road
5. Doubt

Film Editing
1. Body of Lies*
2. Defiance
3. Appaloosa
4. Australia
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography
1. Australia*
2. Defiance
3. The Dark Knight
4. Red Cliff
5. Blindness

Original Score
1. WALL-E*
2. Revolutionary Road
3. Defiance
4. Indiana Jones
5. Prince Caspian

Art Direction
1. Red Cliff*
2. Australia
3. Indiana Jones
4. Prince Caspian
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin

Costume Design
1. The Other Boleyn Girl*
2. Red Cliff
3. The Duchess
4. Changeling
5. Prince Caspian

Sound Mixing
1. Defiance*
2. WALL-E
3. Appaloosa
4. Prince Caspian
5. Iron Man

Sound Editing
1. WALL-E*
2. Iron Man
3. Defiance
4. Indiana Jones
5. Speed Racer

Visual Effects
1. Prince Caspian*
2. Iron Man
3. Harry Potter

Makeup
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
2. The Dark Knight
3. Prince Caspian

Animated Picture
1. WALL-E*
2. Kung Fu Panda
3. The Tale of Despereaux


Thoughts:
  • A number of the nominees I've predicted in the acting categories could be billed as either supporting or leading. I'll keep my eye on it, cause there are sure to be changes in the future.
  • I don't really believe Heath Ledger can be nominated for a comic book movie, but the lemming in me just can't ignore the hype.
  • Likewise, I don't really believe WALL-E has hope in hell at best director and picture. That's the non-conformist in me speaking up.
  • I'm one of the only people who seems to be anticipating a strong showing for Prince Caspain. Maybe the May release date has scared most pundits away from predicting more than a few nominations, but if it's anywhere near as good as The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe was, I think it could end up with as many as six or seven.
  • Predictions for documentary, foreign language film, original song, and the shorts will be coming soon. And by "coming soon", I mean: "don't hold your breath".

I'm afraid you may not here much, or anything, from me this week. I'll be particularly busy, and I think the mass amounts of Cadbury MiniEggs consumed this weekend have made me rather sluggish. Sorry about that. I will return by the weekend with something irrelevent to say (as usual).

2 comments:

Marcy said...

Anne Hathaway...Oscar-nominee? I haven't been impressed with any of her work so far (didn't see Becoming Jane yet) and the premise for Dancing with Shiva doesn't sound too promising. I guess I would replace her with Nicole Kidman for Australia.

Catherine Keener is a critic's darling, so I expect her to get a nomination for Synecdoche, New York instead of Michelle Williams.

The Academy will definitely honor Ledger with a Best Supporting Actor nomination, if not a win.

The Oscar Nazi said...

I wouldn't normally consider Anne Hathaway either, but stranger things have happened.

My concern about Keener is that she has other supporting projects this year ("The Soloist", "Genova") and I foresee a possible vote-split.

As for Ledger, I'm hesitant about him because he'll have to rely entirely on the Academy's younger demographic to get in. The older members aren't as familiar with his work, and many of them probably won't even bother watching "The Dark Knight". The deciding factor will be how good his performance actually is; if it's half as good as the current buzz suggests, he's in.