Saturday, March 29, 2008

Predictions from around the web

Not a lot of people out there like making early predix, but I have managed to find a few sites so far who do: In Contention, Oscar Obsession, Oscar Breach, The Oscar Igloo Blog, Oscar Addict, Oscar intel, and of course, yours truly.

The general consensus in the main categories are given below. Myself included, there are eight sets of predictions for each category.
*Note, for pundits who made wimpy "either/or" picks (ie: Benicio Del Toro for The Argentine or Guerrilla), I gave each title mentioned 1/2 of a vote. In some cases I had to give three different titles 1/3 of a vote!

Picture
6 votes Revolutionary Road
5 votes Frost/Nixon
4 votes Australia
............The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
............Doubt

Director
6 votes David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjmamin Button)
............Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road)
4 votes Gus Van Sant (Milk)
3 votes Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
............Baz Luhrman (Australia)
............Ridley Scott (Body of Lies)
............John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
............Joe Wright (The Soloist)

Lead Actor
8 votes....Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
5.5 votes Sean Penn (Milk)
4 votes....Benicio Del Toro (The Argentine)
...............Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
3.5 votes Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)

Lead Actress
7 votes......Meryl Streep (Doubt)
5.5 votes...Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
5 votes......Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
4.33 votes Julianne Moore (Blindness)
3.5 votes...Kate Winslet (The Reader)
3 votes......Nicole Kidman (Australia)

Supporting Actor
7 votes....Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
...............Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon)
6 votes....Josh Brolin (Milk)
5.5 votes Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
5 votes....Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist)

Supporting Actress
8 votes......Amy Adams (Doubt)
7 votes......Kathy Bates (Revolutionary Road)
................ Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
4.33 votes Catherine Keener (The Soloist)
3 votes......Renee Zellweger (Appaloosa)

Original Screenplay
8 votes WALL-E
7 votes Synecdoche, New York
6 votes Milk
3 votes Australia
............Burn After Reading
............Hamlet 2
............The Soloist

Adapted Screenplay
8 votes Frost/Nixon
7 votes Revolutionary Road
6 votes The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
............Doubt
5 votes Body of Lies
............The Reader

Thoughts:
  • I included Nicole Kidman as a sixth in Best Actress because Academy rules would prevent Kate Winslet from two nominations in the same category.
  • Thus far, it seems unanimous that Frank Langella and Amy Adams will receive acting nominations, and that WALL-E and Frost/Nixon will receive writing nominations. Personally, I'm worried that WALL-E's early frontrunner status in Original Screenplay may not bode well for it's long-term results. God, I really want to see Pixar win this award one day!
  • Vote-splitting is real! Loenardo DiCaprio would have been 2nd behind Frank Langella in Best Actor if his votes weren't split between Revolutionary Road and Body of Lies. This could indicate that there is indeed a danger that Leo may not get nominated this year. I'm not too worried about Kate Winslet splitting her own vote, because Best Actress doesn't seems as competitive a category this year (yet).

Tomorrow I'll show the general consensus for the other categories (not as many have stuck their oar in for the tech awards, so the frontrunners are harder to define). Is there somebody out there whose early predictions I haven't noticed? If so, let me know.

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